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Posted on Sun, May. 22, 2005 High-rises, high hopes A frenzy of condo-building will remake much of Miami in this decade. The likely result: a new skyline, more congestion and more wealth By ANDRES VIGLUCCI AND MATTHEW HAGGMAN aviglucci@herald.com In downtown, from Brickell Avenue north to the Edgewater neighborhood, up the Miami River and down historic Coral Way, great chunks of Old Miami are fast disappearing in a cloud of dust. In its place, the New Miami -- a dense, steel-and-glass forest of condo towers -- is rising from the rubble. The scope, scale and speed of the transformation are breathtaking. INTERACTIVE • Click for details More than 114 major projects, most of them high-rise condos, are under construction or in the planning stages in the urban core along Biscayne Bay. Citywide, developers are proposing more than 61,000 new condominium units -- eight times the number built during the past decade. The projects encompass the tallest skyscraper in Florida, a 74-story spire higher than any residential building south of Manhattan, almost four million square feet of new retail space (nearly as much as two Aventura Malls) and parking for more than 100,000 cars. ''You have a wave of development underway here in Miami that is unprecedented, bigger than anything, bigger than Hong Kong in the boom years of development,'' said former Portland, Ore., councilman Charles Hales, a transportation consultant working on a plan for a Miami streetcar line. Not since the post-World War II housing boom that multiplied Miami-Dade County's population fivefold, to more than one million people, has the region experienced anything comparable. But that took almost 20 years. ''We are building an instant city; what should take 15 years will take three,'' said Michael Cannon, a Miami real-estate analyst. The boom struck suddenly, unexpectedly, first a trickle of projects, then a torrent. Cash has poured in from Latin America, New York and, increasingly, Europe, the result of converging market forces -- slashed interest rates, a cheap dollar -- and a worldwide infatuation with Miami among the chic and moneyed. It all amounts to a multibillion-dollar gamble, outdoing in risk and bravado the 1920s boom that made Miami a modern city: That given waterfront location, a sunny climate and a hip, international culture, intensive downtown residential development can catapult Miami into the first rank of world cities. Elected officials, in particular Miami Mayor Manny Diaz and Miami Commissioner Johnny Winton, are counting on the boom to reverse downtown's long decline, to turn its seedy blocks and outlying neighborhoods into a scintillating, working urban hub with a vibrant street life. ''Just five years ago we were broke; we had zero development,'' Winton said. ``I'm going to bet you that when we're done -- I don't know when that will be -- historians will identify this as the most significant and rapid transformation of an American city.'' What precisely will the boom deliver? It's too soon to tell, experts say. But this convulsion of development is already remaking not just Miami's skyline, but its streets and neighborhoods and likely its population, too. If it stays on track, the boom promises a fundamentally different Miami -- more urban and congested, but also more cosmopolitan and, given the high prices the condos command, probably wealthier. It also raises serious concerns. In the absence of a ready plan, how will the city cope with thousands of expected new residents and the traffic they will generate, given antiquated infrastructure, limited public transit and a shortage of parks and open space? Will Miami residents, among the nation's poorest urban dwellers, be displaced or priced out of new housing? That is, if the planned condos actually get built, sold and occupied. As the boom takes on the feel of a gold rush, real estate analysts, bankers and even some developers fear it's a mirage, a bubble fueled by speculators looking to resell condo units for a quick profit, and not by true buyer demand. If developers build too much, and speculators can't find buyers for resale, the boom could bust, leaving Miami littered with vacant and bankrupted buildings or, worse, unfinished towers and bare lots. SIGNS OF FUROR For now, though, signs of the furor are everywhere. Sales centers for multimillion-dollar condos that tout the merits of high-rise living sprout up across the city. Brokers push Miami condos in farflung locales, from Caracas and Bogotá to New York and France's Cte d'Azur. Lavish condo parties are thrown by developers several times a week, and advertisements for the high-rises fill the pages of local magazines and newspapers, including The Herald. Downtown Miami is a thicket of construction cranes. Much of the landward side of Biscayne Boulevard has been razed, and the footings and columns of what will soon be a wall of six colossal condos, each more than 50 stories, are becoming visible. ''Where else are you near the water, 10 minutes from Miami Beach, 15 minutes from the airport and have access to public transportation?'' said Daniel Kodsi, chief executive of Boca Raton-based Royal Palm Communities, which plans a high-rise condo called Paramount Park across from AmericanAirlines Arena. There is so much building that developers are struggling to find qualified contractors and subcontractors. Sales and resales in the mid-six figures, and well beyond, have become commonplace. Towers of 300 units sell out in a day, with buyers coming in the main not from Miami, but from other parts of the country and the world. ''Miami, New York and Los Angeles have become the three cities in the U.S. where people want to be,'' said Joe Cayre, chairman of Midtown Group, which is building eight condo towers on the site of the old Florida East Coast Railroad yards in Wynwood. They are people like Sal Loduca, who plans to leave Manhattan and his family's Long Island food business to open a brick-oven pizzeria at Cayre's Midtown Miami. ''Everyone's making the move to Miami. How could you not? It's a great opportunity. Miami's full of life,'' Loduca said. CRITICAL COMBUSTION' Real estate broker Philip Spiegelman calls the confluence of factors propelling this boom a ``critical combustion.'' Among them: • Across the country, young people and so-called ''empty-nesters'' have been returning to urban centers, in part because of long, wearing commutes from outlying suburbs. At the same time, a dwindling supply of easily developable land in western Miami-Dade and Broward counties has prompted developers to look eastward. • A shortage of waterfront property elsewhere led developers to Miami's acres and acres of vacant bayfront land. • Low interest rates have fueled record home-buying, while aging baby boomers are increasingly seeking second homes in sunny or exotic places. • A cleaner local government has made Miami attractive to lenders and investors who once thought the city too risky, unsafe or corrupt. • The weak dollar has made Miami an alluring bargain for Europeans and Latin Americans. And compared to other urban centers like New York City, Miami remains cheap. Then there is the other factor, anecdotal and unquantifiable: the speculator. ''As much as 85 percent of all condominium sales in [downtown Miami] are accounted for by investors and speculators,'' housing analysts at investment firm Raymond James warned in a March report. Banks have started to back off lending on condo projects, or have instituted new rules to avoid giving mortgages to investors. Spiegelman sold the condo units in the Marina Blue condo going up on Biscayne Boulevard. ''One hundred percent of the buyers were investors and speculators,'' he said. ``Anyone who tells you their projects are different are deluding themselves.'' ZONING-CODE OVERHAUL The pace of development is so furious that it has overtaken the city's planning efforts. Only now is the city getting around to a long-promised overhaul of its outdated zoning code, a complete rewrite meant to ensure that new development produces lively, pedestrian-friendly streetscapes and respects open spaces and established neighborhoods, while weaving it all together into a cogent urban fabric. The rewrite, dubbed Miami 21, will be phased in over two years. Yet more than 100 large-scale projects, most of them in and around downtown, have already been approved or are under construction. Public-transit improvements like Metrorail extensions, a light-rail line to Miami Beach and the contemplated city streetcar are years away, raising fears of gridlock. Quipped Cannon, the real estate analyst: ``Maybe we need to give every buyer of a condo in the urban core a Segway.'' There are other worries. Some skeptics, noting the high condo prices and the out-of-town provenance of buyers, fear that instead of the diverse, working 24-hour downtown that city leaders envision, the boom will instead create a seasonal playground for the rich, a Monte Carlo on Biscayne Bay. ''I bet those buildings are going to be empty a lot of the time,'' said Joel Kotkin, an urban historian and consultant who has written about the rise of what he calls ''ephemeral cities'' -- places like San Francisco, Berlin and parts of New York that increasingly cater to the rich, the childless young and tourists. ''Maybe this is Miami's karma, to be this kind of place, a temporary, hip, cool, nomadic population serviced by a poor population,'' said Kotkin, author of The City: A Global History. But, he added: ``History shows a city has to maintain some sense of a middle-class character if it wants to thrive.'' MISSING LINK' Yet there's relatively little in the new downtown priced for working families. ''The missing link here is in creating housing that the middle class can afford,'' said Rafael Kapustin, a longtime downtown property owner who pioneered the conversion of old downtown offices and hotels into modestly priced condos and apartments. In partnership with a big developer, the Related Group, Kapustin developed two affordable loft condos, with units averaging around $150,000, now under construction in the inner core of downtown. But their Loft II project may be the last of its kind because of the surging cost of land and construction, he said. City leaders are sanguine. They say it will take years for all the planned condos to be built and occupied, allowing time to absorb new residents, build public amenities and improve transit. While few city residents can afford waterfront condos, thousands of moderately priced condos and rental apartments are being built by private developers in adjacent Overtown and neighborhoods like Little Havana and Allapattah, many with direct city subsidies, according to a recent report from Miami Mayor Diaz. `SELF-REINFORCING CYCLE' And gradually, as new residents move into downtown, businesses, shops, restaurants, neighborhood retailers and services will follow, said Neisen Kasdin, a land-use lawyer and former Miami Beach mayor. ''It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle,'' Kasdin said. ``Yes, there will be a large segment of temporary residents, but as the city continues to grow as an international business city, it leads to the continued growth of a permanent community.'' Meanwhile, the city has instituted measures that strengthen the planners' hand in shaping an attractive, livable downtown: hiding parking garages inside buildings; lining sidewalks with shops, offices, dwellings and restaurants; and keeping garage and service entrances off Biscayne Boulevard and other main arteries. 'We used to sit here and say, `Someday,' '' said Miami Planning Director Ana Gelabert-Sánchez, alluding to the city's long-frustrated hopes for a downtown revival. ``Well, someday is here.'' Herald staff writer Larry Lebowitz contributed to this report.

Residential development in Miami continues to grow By Yeleny Suarez. April 15th, 2005 The City of Miami's development continues to boom, with 254 projects in the pipeline - 21 more than in mid-January. That includes more than 72,500 residences, adding 5,864 units to the 66,648 in the works just three months ago. Although the $18 billion projected construction is expected to help double the tax roll, city officials caution that too much of anything is not good.  "It's important to focus on winding down a bit and concentrate on the impact the growth in development will have on things like traffic and schools," said Commissioner Joe Sanchez, "look at all negative aspects of over-development. That is what the city's comprehensive plan like Miami 21 will do."   Miami 21, which is intended to become the city's new zoning ordinance based on smart growth principles, is to be unveiled at an 8:30 a.m. launch Saturday at Miami Dade College's downtown campus. As he sees more and more development, Commissioner Thomas Regalado also thinks the city should discuss service expansion soon. "As of now," he said, "we should be thinking of how to expand services like the fire department and police."  Of the 254 projects on the city's list, 39 have been completed at a cost of $2.2 billion and 40 are under construction at a cost of $4.1 billion. Another 67 at $9.2 billion have been approved, 21 at $959 million are in application phases and 87 at $1.4 billion are in preliminary phases.  Downtown is the focal point of Miami's development frenzy, with 87 projects totaling 40,454 residences at an estimated construction cost of $12.9 billion. The next most active areas in the city are: Wynwood/Edgewater, with 8,940 planned housing units at $2.2 billion,  Coral Way, with 25 projects including 3,192 housing units at $300 million.  23 projects are planned for East Little Havana with 3,547 residences ($252 million); 15 for Allapattah with 3,738 units ($572 million); 13 for the upper east side with 1,292 units, ($319 million); 12 for northeastern Coconut Grove with 1,724 units ($669 million); 10 for Flagami, with 6,870 units ($455 million);  7 for Overtown with 1,358 housing units ($129 million);  4 for West Flagler with 642 units ($35 million);  3 for Little Haiti with 322 units ($40 million);  2 for Model City with 271 units ($23 million) and  1 for southwestern Coconut Grove with 42 units ($42 million). Tax roll projections for the city are due next month, Larry Spring, city budget and strategic planning chief, has said. From 2003 to 2004 the tax rolls grew $3 billion, and today they're at $22.5 billion. Added taxes could provide the basis for added services. Commissioner Sanchez says Miami is experiencing a lot of growth and it is important to start putting in some controls. "What worries me is we don't have the high-paying jobs in the city to accommodate the high-end growth," he said. "Development is good for the city, but we need to bring in more corporations to bring in high-paying jobs to balance it out."

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Interesting articles on Real Estate Market and New Construction frenzy. August 31, 2003  Lining up for dreams "Seller's market triggers a feeding-frenzy mentality at openings of new housing developments." By Robyn A. Friedman Special Correspondent for the Sun-Sentinel  The night was balmy, the mosquitoes hungry and the line seemed to grow as the hours stretched from dusk till dawn. But Christian Schoemig didn't care. He had a mission: buying the Wellington home of his dreams. "There were about a dozen people lined up by midnight and about 75 by 6 a.m.," said Schoemig, 39, who lived in Key West at the time. "There was such a buzz." Schoemig was No. 3 in line, and he was equipped with mosquito repellent, a bottle of water and a lounge chair. Nos. 1 and 2 had sleeping bags. No. 4 ferried those who needed to use the bathroom to her home in the middle of the night, as others in line watched portable TVs. On that October night in 2001, Schoemig really wanted to purchase a home at Olympia, a 1,782-unit single-family home development by Minto Communities Inc. So did a lot of others. More than 3,000 people showed up during the grand opening weekend. They put deposits down on more than 100 homes priced from the low $200,000s to more than $800,000. By camping out for 12 hours overnight, Schoemig -- who had never waited in a long line for anything before, not even rock concert tickets -- managed to secure the cul-de-sac lot he coveted and saved money. The builder bumped up prices by $3,000 after the opening weekend, Schoemig said. And by buying early, he got a $5,000 credit at closing for options, which he applied toward upgraded cabinets and stainless steel appliances. He closed on his $360,000 Mediterranean-style house in March. Schoemig is not the only home buyer driven to extremes in South Florida. The smallest sign posted on a piece of raw land often sparks a deluge of phone calls to developers. Lines abound when new developments open for sales. And a sort of feeding-frenzy mentality ensues. Harry Posin, executive vice president at Coconut Creek-based Minto, was aware that hopeful home buyers routinely camped out in Southern California and parts of New Jersey, because of limited housing stock, but he hadn't seen this phenomenon in South Florida until the past few years. What's happening in South Florida right now is a "perfect storm" in the housing market: Low interest rates, limited supply and the attractiveness of real estate as an investment option have created a spiral of rising prices fueled by heavy demand. Camping out is just one manifestation of a robust seller's market. "Buyers see the prices changing, so they get scared," said Luis Rabell, president of the Builders Association of South Florida and Miami-based LPR Builders. "When someone opens a new development, they see that as an opportunity to walk in and get the lowest possible price." Lots in short supply The supply of houses that are under construction or on the drawing board is low. The number of vacant developed lots will last just 5.3 months in Broward County, 11.8 months in Miami-Dade County and 8.5 months in Palm Beach County, according to Boca Raton-based Metrostudy. A typical real estate market in equilibrium has a 24- to 30-month supply of such lots, said Bradley F. Hunter, Metrostudy's director of consulting. "The supply problem will continue to get worse," Hunter said. "There's a critical shortage of buildable land in Broward County and a developing shortage in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade as well." Rising prices reflect the tight supply. According to the Florida Association of Realtors, the median sales price of an existing single-family home skyrocketed 16 percent in Broward County and 21 percent in both Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties in July from a year earlier. And so camp-out lines have sprung up at new developments from Wellington to Weston and beyond. Some lines form on dusty tracts of raw land; others outside cushy sales offices where buyers are treated to coffee and doughnuts or even hamburgers. The rules are sometimes strict: Abandon your place in line, and forget about coming back. Once your number is called, you usually need to write a check for up to 20 percent of the purchase price to secure a home. Some builders try to avoid lines. When Minto opened up sales for The WaterGarden, its 315-unit condominium project in Fort Lauderdale, there were already 1,000 names on the waiting list. To avoid pandemonium at the sales office -- and to give everyone a fair chance -- Minto held a lottery. Building in phases In some ways, the long camping-out lines are reminiscent of the creaky economies of Third World or communist countries, where supply and demand imbalances are a way of life. Instead of waiting on line for a loaf of bread, buyers in South Florida wait for real estate. So an obvious question may be: In a free market, why don't builders simply raise their prices? As it turns out, they do. Builders typically use a process called "phasing," where prices are successively increased for later stages of a project. The first home purchasers lock in a pre-construction price, lower than what the home will sell for -- if units are still available -- when the developer breaks ground. Developers then release blocks of houses for sale. When those are gone, if the market is strong, they'll bump the price $3,000 or $10,000 a unit for identical homes in the next block. While the price bump is a reaction to increased demand, it also reflects the fact that builders' prices go up over time. After all, builders expect that their construction costs will rise. They also have to pay "carrying charges" -- or taxes, insurance and loan interest -- on the raw land where homes are built later. "You have to protect yourself," Rabell said. "Builders know what their costs are today, but as time goes by, those costs increase." But the practice of phasing can also create chaos in a hot housing market, as buyers clamor to be the first in line and secure the lowest price possible. In May, buyers at Marina Village, a condominium project being developed in Boynton Beach by The Related Group of Florida, stood in line and watched helplessly as prices rose throughout the day. More than 500 people had shown up, some the night before. Advertised prices ranged from $139,000 to $239,000, but Related released units for sale in blocks of 20, raising prices after each block sold out. The 338-unit project sold out within two days.     Condo sales outrun a fast market

Tue Feb 17, 6:54 AM ET

By Thomas A. Fogarty, USA TODAY
Condominiums, the long-suffering stepchild of the U.S. housing market, have come of age. In big cities and across the Sun Belt, condo sales are booming, and prices are up smartly.

For many, condos conjure an image of cramped living, high-priced parking and mettlesome building associations.

But they're hot because they're still affordable, and they meet the demands of baby boomers and Generation X buyers for low maintenance and convenient, hip, urban locations. They've moved in the last few years from laggard to leader in a national housing market that took off a decade ago and has been kept strong by high demand and low mortgage rates.

For the first time, the price midpoint for condos in the final quarter of 2003 topped that of detached single-family homes - $174,700 vs. $171,600, the National Association of Realtors has reported. Sales volume is growing faster than that of single-family homes and is closing in on 1 million units per year, NAR says.

Dawn Keer is among recent buyers fueling the condo boom in Philadelphia's Center City district. Age 32 and single, she sold her suburban townhouse last year and moved into a $262,000 downtown condo with about half the living space. The attraction: the neighborhood's night life, cultural amenities and walkability.

"For me, it's where I had been spending my time anyway," says Keer, who works in radio sales and marketing.

Genevieve Hanson, also 32, expresses similar motivation for her recent purchase of a $300,000, two-level loft in Logan Circle, a revitalized neighborhood in Washington, D.C. The neighborhood's diversity and proximity to cafes and culture attracted her. "I definitely like the feel of living in the city," says Hanson, who drives 30 minutes to her job as a management consultant in suburban Virginia.

Women and first-timers

Condos are the housing of choice for many single women, says research by the National Association of Realtors. About one-third of condo buyers are single women, vs. about one-fifth of single-family homebuyers, says NAR.

NAR research shows condos also are popular with first-time buyers seeking a foothold in the fast-appreciating residential real estate market.

"I tell all my first-time borrowers they need to get on the (real estate) merry-go-round," says zipRealty agent Helen Ross, who sells in the suburbs of Washington. As often as not, she says, that means a condo. Even then, condos aren't cheap - just cheaper. In suburban Reston, Va., Ross says, condos can be found in the low $200,000 range, about half the entry price for a detached home.

Ted and Naomi Bardacke are first-time home buyers who opted for a condo when they moved from New York to Southern California. Their 1,000-square-foot condo in Santa Monica cost $425,000, but Ted Bardacke says it's worth it. He can walk 10 minutes to his job as an urban planner for a non-profit environmental group. The beach and shopping are in walking distance, too, allowing them to get along with one vehicle in the USA's most auto-centric region.

As former renters, the couple are comfortable with apartment-style living, he says. And, he says, they are likely to do fine if and when they sell. "I don't know what's happening to the market for condos, but I do know they're not making any more beach," he says.

Likewise, Creed Pettit, 27, says his new $550,000 condo in nearby Marina del Rey is a bargain compared with single-family homes in the neighborhood. "You'd be looking at $1 million-plus," says Pettit, sales director at a technology company.

Easy upkeep

Condos are popular with empty-nesters and retirees seeking a reprieve from the upkeep of a single-family home, says NAR research.

"I'm done with yard work," says Tom Gorman, a Los Angeles Times editor who returned to Southern California last year after a stint as a Las Vegas-based correspondent. Their children now grown, Gorman and wife, Jeanne, both 52, bought their first condo. It's a $350,000 "fixer-upper" in Laguna Hills, where they could have expected to pay more than $400,000 for the cheapest single-family home.

Ross, the Northern Virginia agent, says she frequently sells condos to baby boomers who are replacing big family homes with two residences. "They've already bought their beach house, and now they want a condo close to the city," she says.

How vibrant is the condo market? Some indicators:

More condos sold in 2003 than any other year. According to a report by NAR, 898,000 existing condos sold last year, up 9.5% from 2002, and the eighth-consecutive volume record. Condo resales have grown so much, they nearly match the number of new detached single-family homes that sell each year.

Despite some year-end easing in sales, NAR chief economist David Lereah said volume remains "exceptionally high." Said Lereah: "There's a tremendous momentum that will be driving the condo market again this year."

Prices are surging. According to NAR, the median price - the sales midpoint - for condo resales last year rose to $163,800, a shade below the $169,900 median for single-family homes. The 15.2% annual rise in the median price for condos was about double the rate of increase for single-family homes.

It's not just resales. The market for new condos is strong. John Burns, an Irvine, Calif.-based home building industry consultant, estimates condos now represent 5% to 10% of the output of publicly traded building companies. Some are building to meet the incredible demand for housing at the low end of the price range, he said. Other builders are catering to an increasing demand for luxury condos.

The high end is hot

Philadelphia real estate broker Allan Domb, who booked $207 million in condo sales in 2002, has seen the market for high-end condos explode. The Lippincott, a converted publishing building set to open this spring, has sold 25 of its 27 units without advertising, Domb says. Prices: $650,000 to $3.5 million.

San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Miami are seeing the boom in high-end condos, too.

Luxury builders Toll Brothers and Pinnacle last month announced plans for a posh, 832-unit condominium development on the Hudson River in Hoboken, N.J. Plans call for a series of high- and midrise buildings across the river from Manhattan on the former Maxwell House Coffee site.

Toll Brothers Vice President Doug Yearley says condominiums - both urban and suburban - promise to make up an increasing share of the company's output.

"The demographics are pointing that way," Yearley says. Also driving the trend, he says, is intensifying opposition from no-growth advocates on the fringes of many big cities. Condos, particularly in urban areas, carry land costs that are a fraction of what Toll pays for its traditional sprawling developments, Yearley says. Also, city governments welcome the developments as a way to renew their urban cores, he says.

A modern phenomenon

Condominiums are a phenomenon of the last quarter-century. They began to stir in the late 1970s as the leading edge of the baby boom generation reached house-buying age. It helped that apartment developers had overbuilt in many cities and were eager to sell their units rather than endure high vacancy rates.

During housing market downturns, condo values have been quicker to fall and slower to recover than single-family homes. Condos' traditional role as the entry point into the housing market made their market values more vulnerable to economic vagaries than traditional homes.

Kathleen Freepartner, a veteran zipRealty broker-agent in Orange County, Calif., watched the cycle play out in Southern California through the last decade. The broad housing market started to recover from its notorious 1991 swoon about mid-decade. But condo sales didn't gain momentum until about 1999, she says. Now, she says, condo prices have nearly tripled since 1996. And in housing-short Orange County, condos sell as soon as they come on the market, she says.

John Karevoll, analyst at market tracker DataQuick, says condos are now seeing the boom that other segments of the housing market - luxury and move-up homes, for example - experienced earlier in the current housing cycle. For those just now buying into the market, the delayed rally in condos is a good thing.

"Condos probably have a little more upside in front of them than does the rest of the market," he says.