02/17/2007: Over the last five years, metro areas with the largest single-family price gains include the California areas of Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, up 155.3 percent, and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, up 142.3 percent, followed by the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach area of Florida, up 135.4 percent. Study: 'Explosive' Growth Period Has Created Affordable Housing Crisis in Florida County RISMEDIA, March 2 - A new study released shows that Broward County and South Florida experienced a three-year "explosive" housing boom between 2002 and 2005 that has created a "severe housing supply and demand imbalance." Further, the study says that with a 6 percent growth in per capita income during the last three years, it's unlikely that Broward's economic growth alone will offset the higher cost of homes, which have jumped in price by 65 percent in only two years. Currently, the study says 22 of Broward County's municipalities have affordability gaps of more than $100,000 between the median sales price of a single family home and the family median income needed to purchase a home. A major affordability gap also extends countywide to rental housing and to condominium prices in the majority of cities. The "Broward County Housing Needs Assessment" study -- the first comprehensive study of the county's housing needs -- was commissioned by the non-profit Broward Housing Partnership (BHP). It was prepared by the Florida International University Metropolitan Center, said BHP President James Carras. Carras also announced the BHP's proactive strategic solutions plan that incorporates research, public education and the creation of partnerships with government entities, developers and financial institutions to purchase land and build affordable housing. "The study is the first step in finding solutions to this crisis, which affects the lives of every person and family and is having a significant impact on the operation of all Broward businesses and our county's overall economic growth." According to the Needs Assessment study, the median housing price-to- income ratio -- a key economic indicator in assessing local market trends and vitality -- tripled during the three-year boom period, outpacing other high- priced metropolitan markets. This means the majority of individuals and most two-income families in Broward County are priced out of the market. While 77 percent of the county's households earn less than $77,000 annually, those same families would need an annual income of $90,720 to afford a single-family home with the current median price of $361,100, according to the study. Meanwhile, the median income (AMI) in Broward County for a household with two wage earners is only $51,570. Housing costs are considered a burden when they amount to over 30 percent of a household's income. While condominiums appear to be a more affordable alternative (requiring an income of $50,000 for a median priced condo of $193,000), 44 percent of households in Broward County earn less than $41,300. The crunch extends to rental housing as well, where an income of $45,000 is needed to afford a market rate apartment costing $1,122 a month in rent. Rental prices are fairly uniform throughout the county, the study reported. However, the median income of renters is only $31,898 and 57 percent of renter households earn less than $41,300. Projected population and job growth figures for Broward County show that between 2004 and 2012, approximately 27,000 additional work force housing units (for people who earn between 80 and 150 percent of the median AMI) and 51,000 affordable rental housing units will be needed for households earning less than 80 percent of the AMI. The study noted that 50 percent of the local labor force is employed in service sectors of the economy, which pay annual incomes of $25,000 a year or less. Also given focus in the study were core jobs that consist of career professional and technical positions with good wages and benefits. Examples would be police officers, teachers and nurses. "We must be able to provide housing for workers who form the basis of our economy in industries such as tourism and hospitality, and also provide appropriate housing support for crucial occupations such as police officers, firefighters, nurses and other public service professionals," Carras said. To address the affordability gap demonstrated in the study, Carras said the BHP will utilize all existing tools to help Broward County resolve its housing crisis. He said the organization, comprised of 70 business and civic organizations, will continue to compile and analyze existing data, continue to update data, increase public awareness through an education program and build stakeholder consensus. Carras said the BHP will also capitalize and operate a family of funds for affordable housing, review and make recommendations on housing proposals that are seeking local support, identify land suitable for housing development, review and make recommendations of local zoning and land use regulations to further promote affordable housing and work with local developers of affordable housing. He said a Housing Trust Fund, capitalized by a blend of corporate and community investors, would make loans and grants to qualified developers of affordable multi-family rental housing and provide "gap" financing, and also provide first-time Homebuyer Assistance funds to make zero-interest loans to help qualified families to purchase their first homes. A Community Land Trust will also be formed to seek opportunities to use vacant land for infill development or to convert old buildings to new homes, Carras said. The Land Trust will also purchase land for affordable housing development and coordinate with institutional providers such as local housing authorities, school boards, hospital districts and also with private sector employers to ensure the long-term affordability of housing. "Many of these tools are not necessarily original," said Carras. "While we will always look for and consider out-of-the-box solutions, we will immediately make use of tools that have worked effectively locally and in other areas of the country." Posted on Fri, Feb. 17, 2006 Condo conversion deal may be state's largest MCZ/Centrum will close on a more than $600 million deal with AIMCO to purchase the Flamingo South Beach apartment complex and turn the property into condos. BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN mhaggman@MiamiHerald.com The Flamingo South Beach, a massive apartment complex in Miami Beach, is set to be sold and turned into condominiums, in a deal that appears to be the biggest condo conversion ever in Florida -- and possibly the country. MCZ/Centrum, a joint venture group based in Chicago, will pay more than $600 million for the 1,688-unit apartment complex that sits on 13 acres along Biscayne Bay. The property is being sold by AIMCO, a publicly-traded apartment company in Denver. The parties reached agreement Thursday and are expected to close today. The purchase suggests that the Chicago condo converters remain bullish on South Florida's condo market. But it also comes at time when prices appear to be leveling after hitting new highs last year. Under the terms of the deal, the Bay Road property will be bought in phases, with the south tower converted to condominiums first, followed by the north and center towers. Miami-based Fortune International is slated to sell the units, which must be first offered to existing renters. Judy Stowell, AIMCO's director of public relations, did not return calls Thursday. Earlier in the week she said the company does not comment until a deal is complete. Principals at MCZ/Centrum either declined comment or could not be reached. Jay Massirman, the CB Richard Ellis vice chairman who is brokering the deal, also declined comment. `HIGHEST SALE PRICE' Amid South Florida's housing boom, developers have bought rental apartments and turned them into condos at a furious pace. But market observers said they do not recall any condo conversion with such a hefty price tag. ''To my knowledge, at more than $600 million it would be the highest sale price for an apartment in the state of Florida and possibly the country,'' said veteran real estate analyst Michael Cannon, managing director of Integra Realty Resources in Miami. Cannon also said it would be the largest apartment complex in Florida to be turned into condos. Across South Florida, developers have sought to take advantage of strong -- at times, frenzied -- demand for condos by converting apartments into condos. Such a scenario allows developers to avoid the headaches of actually erecting a new building. It also allows buyers to purchase and move into a unit faster than the roughly two years it takes for a new condo to be built. Go to Flamingo page for details or to make a reservation

Signs pointing to a slower market South Florida is one of the nation's hottest housing markets but its five-year run of soaring home prices is ending. Still, don't expect to find bargains anytime soon. BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN, LISA ARTHUR AND TIM HENDERSON mhaggman@MiamiHerald.com The story of 801 Majorca Ave. is the story of South Florida's housing boom. 801 Majorca is a three-bedroom, Spanish-style home on a quiet street in Coral Gables. In 2002, it sold for $413,000. A year later, it sold for $505,000. And in November it went on the market, billed as a ''mini Vizcaya,'' for an asking price of $799,000. But this time it didn't sell. In late November, owners Janina Deppie and Jaime Einstein lowered the price to $769,000. Still nothing. December came and went and the ''For Sale'' sign stayed. ''There were some brokers who came in and looked at the house and said it will sell in a week,'' Deppie observed. ``But that was the old standard.'' Over the past five years, South Florida has gone through the most explosive housing boom in its history. The land rush has transformed just about every corner and corridor of the region, sending prices skyward since 2000 -- more than 150 percent in Pompano Beach, more than 200 percent in Hallandale Beach and Sunny Isles Beach, and 250 percent in North Bay Village, according to an analysis by The Miami Herald of home sales over the past five years. Housing mania has reshaped the economy along with the skyline and shoreline, creating billions in homeowner equity and feeding an entire ecosystem of jobs, from cement maker to mortgage broker. But it also has propelled South Florida into the ranks of the nation's least affordable places to live: A mid-priced home now costs nearly eight times median income, up from four in 2000. Now the big question is: Is the wild ride over? Yes, experts say. South Florida's five-year run of annual price jumps of anywhere from 12 percent to more than 20 percent is ending, they predict. The signs are already there. Prices have wobbled in recent months, with sellers such as Deppie and Einstein lowering their expectations. The number of homes for sale in Miami-Dade County has nearly doubled since April. Houses are sitting longer on the market -- the average time needed to sell a single-family home in Broward County has jumped from 34 days six months ago to 53 days. And potential home buyers are now more cautious. Last year, when Jeff and Stephanie Carson contemplated moving from Mississippi to South Florida, they played a version of real estate bluff. The couple went to online real estate sites to guess how high prices had climbed -- only to find them higher than they had ever dreamed. In August, they moved into a rental apartment in Coral Gables. ''You can imagine the sticker shock,'' said Jeff Carson, 32, a lawyer. 'Some of the uncertainty about prices and how long we're going to stay led us to say, `Let's sign a one-year lease.' '' SHIFT IN GEARS For single-family homes, many say, the market is shifting from overdrive into third gear. Experts predict prices will still go up by 5 percent to 10 percent this year. Demand remains strong because land is scarce and South Floridians still dream of a house with a yard. But homes in the western parts of each county are more vulnerable, said Bradley Hunter, an analyst with real estate consulting firm MetroStudy. ''That is because so much more stuff has recently been sold in the west and much has been bought by investors and speculators,'' Hunter said. The area most in danger of falling prices: condos, which now make up more than half of housing sales in South Florida. Experts predict condo prices will slow, flatten or even fall this year, especially at the high end, because the boom churned out too many units too fast. There are, for instance, 15,080 units under construction in the city of Miami alone, compared with 11,241 built in the entire past 10 years. And that doesn't even count the more than 28,000 units approved to go up in Miami. Condo fever already has cooled from the time when buyers camped out all night at sales centers. In 2004, it took developer Jorge Perez of the Related Group of Florida about a week to sell out The Plaza, a 1,000-unit Brickell Avenue project. Perez's more recent project, the 1,750-unit ICON Brickell, just a few blocks away, went on the market in April. But after more than eight months, it's still not sold out. To summarize the market, developer Henry Harper scooped up the milky froth on his cappuccino at a Miami restaurant with his spoon. ''This is now gone,'' he said. While rising construction costs may buffer the market by choking off proposed projects, some market watchers say so many buyers are speculators that prices will drop. ''There is severe overbuilding of condos,'' economist Hank Fishkind said in January at an Urban Land Institute conference in Hollywood. He gloomily predicted, ``People will get hurt, banks will go bankrupt.'' Deerfield Beach investor Jack McCabe is betting on it. He has started several so-called vulture funds to swoop in on distressed properties at bargain prices after a market fall. He says he has more than $10 million in pledges already. ''I think it will happen in 2006,'' he said. ``The writing is on the wall.'' HOW IT AFFECTS YOU What does all this mean? If you're hunting for a home this year, you'll likely be in more of a buyers' market, with prices leveling. But prices are still coming off a red-hot high, so plan to pay up. And don't expect a return to the days when you could get a house in paradise for under $200,000. If you're selling, you may have to be more patient this year. But chances are in many cases you'll still do fine, just not as well as you might have before. And of course, if major hurricanes hit South Florida, all bets are off. To understand the forecasts, look at how the factors that sparked the housing boom in the first place are likely to play out. House hysteria nationwide arose from a perfect storm of events. And in South Florida, it was more like a hurricane. First, new buyers rushed in. Second-home buyers -- including baby boomers hitting their peak earning years -- now account for about a third of all home purchases. And roughly 15 percent of buyers are from another country, a Florida Association of Realtors study found last year -- probably even more in Miami-Dade. While boomer and foreigner funds won't fade anytime soon, there's more concern around another growing group of buyers: investors and speculators. At the height of the boom in South Florida, investors bought one in five single-family homes sold and at least 60 percent of new condos, real estate analyst Lew Goodkin estimates. Asking prices became the stock quotes of the day. South Beach attorney Matthew Krieger and his friends once pooled money to invest in the stock market. In the last three years, they've sunk about $10 million to $15 million into South Florida real estate instead. They're not done. But Krieger has ruled out investing in condos in areas such as downtown Miami, Biscayne Boulevard and Brickell Avenue. He says anecdotal evidence points to a glut of investors and speculators there, who could flood the market with resales and send prices down. Instead, Krieger is buying office condos, single-family homes and waterfront condos in areas with an already established market. For instance, he is buying on South Beach. ''2006, in the right place, remains very strong,'' said Krieger, 32. ``But you have to be smart about it.'' MORTGAGE CHANGES Another shift playing out is in how people buy houses. In the past five years, mortgage rates plunged to record lows along with interest rates, and more people could afford homes. Some who couldn't afford homes bought them anyway, helped by new kinds of loans and mortgages that required buyers to pay only interest at first, for example. In 2005, 30 percent of sales above about $360,000 in the Miami area were with interest-only loans, slightly more than the national average. And 15 percent came with mortgages where full interest payments were optional at first, according to Freddie Mac, the federal corporation that backs home loans. Now mortgage rates are creeping up and could hit close to 7 percent by the end of the year, blowing cold air on the market. Federal regulators are warning that lenders are offering too many risky loans and mortgages to both builders and buyers. Some banks have already backed off. BankAtlantic stopped financing the construction of high-rise condominiums a year and a half ago. But what grounds real estate in South Florida is land, and there's a limited supply of it. As development spreads, the price of land -- and of the houses on it -- goes up. ''Generally, we only have about 18 to 20 miles of dry land from the beach to the Everglades,'' said Ronald A. Shuffield, president of real estate brokerage Esslinger Wooten Maxwell. ``We are bumping up against the edges in each county.'' At the same time, there are more and more people who want to live here. More than 150 people move to South Florida every day, according to Florida's Office of Economic and Demographic Research. And they're projected to keep coming, lured by sun, surf and South Florida's spruced-up reputation. Plagued for years by the drug trade, public corruption and a seedy image, South Florida is now seen as an international destination for leisure and business. Its economy is robust, with unemployment at its lowest point in 15 years. Put all the pieces together, experts say, and you have a cooling but not a collapsing market. That may help in at least one way -- it may make homes a little more affordable, or less unaffordable. A U.S. Census study last year showed that Miami-Dade ranked second in the country -- behind Brooklyn in New York City -- in residents who spend more than 30 percent of their income on mortgage payments. And that may be one of the biggest reasons the market has to slow down -- prices have reached the ceiling of what many buyers can pay. ''I personally consider it to be almost a good thing because it will bring back some reasonableness to the market,'' said Alan Levan, chief executive of home builder Levitt and BankAtlantic. Levan predicts home prices will go up by less than 10 percent in 2006. 801 Majorca Ave. went into contract at the end of January, nearly three months after it hit the market. The would-be buyers offered a little less than the already-marked-down listing price of $769,000. The deal is set to close March 15.

12/20/2005 Regionally, total existing-home sales in the South eased by 0.7 percent in November to a level of 2.74 million, but were 3.8 percent higher than November 2004. The median price in the South was $184,000, up 8.2 percent from November 2004.  Home-Price Appreciation Stays Hot in Most Metro Areas RISMEDIA, Nov. 16,2005 Strong annual increases in median existing-home prices were common in most metropolitan areas during the third quarter, according to the latest report by National Association of Realtors®. The association´s third-quarter median existing single-family home price survey, covering changes in 147 metropolitan statistical areas,* shows 69 areas with double-digit annual price increases. Six metros had small price declines. The national median existing single-family home price was $215,900 in the third quarter, up 14.7% from the third quarter of 2004 when the median price was $188,200. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. Ninety-seven metros ? two-thirds of the total ? experienced increases greater than the U.S. historic average of 6.4%. David Lereah, NAR´s chief economist, said the pace of price appreciation in the third quarter is far from being normal over time. "These historically high home price gains are the simple result of more buyers than sellers in the market," he said. "The good news is that inventory levels are improving, and housing supply will come close to buyer demand in 2006. In other words, we expect a healthy and more balanced market next year." Since 1968, home prices generally have risen between 1 and 2percentage points faster than the overall rate of inflation; the historic average price gain appears high relative to inflation because there was a period of rapid inflation in the U.S. during the 1970s and early 1980s. NAR President Thomas M. Stevens explained what buyers and sellers generally can expect in the coming year. "Improvements in inventory in most areas should take pressure off of home buyers to make snap decisions, or find themselves in a competitive bidding situation," said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. "This calmer real estate market will create a more level environment for buyers in weighing options to invest in the American dream of homeownership. Sellers will enjoy very healthy gains on the value of their home, but should expect annual increases to be much closer to historic levels going forward." Click to view Metro Prices Data The strongest price increase in the nation was in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area of Arizona, where the third quarter price of $268,000 rose 55.2% from a year earlier. Next was Orlando, Fla., at $261,300, up 44.8% from the third quarter of 2004. Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, Fla., with a third quarter median price of $277,600, was up 42.5% in the last year. The areas experiencing price declines were lower-priced markets, with one or both of the conditions necessary for price softness ? local economic weakness, primarily in jobs, or a large supply of homes for sale in the local area. Median third-quarter metro area prices ranged from $72,800 in Danville, Ill., to nearly 10 times that amount in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area of California where the median price was $721,900. The second most expensive area in the United States was Anaheim-Santa Ana (Orange Co., Calif.) at $710,700, followed by the Honolulu area and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., tied at $615,000. Other low-cost markets include, Elmira, N.Y., the second least-costly metro, at $77,100, and Decatur, Ill., with a third-quarter typical resale home price of $85,500. Regionally, the strongest increase was in the West where the median existing single-family home price rose 18.8% over the last year to $322,000 during the third quarter. After Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, the strongest increase in the West was in the Tucson area where the median price of $242,300 rose 34.7% from a year earlier, followed by Honolulu, up 31.1%, and Eugene-Springfield, Ore., at $208,900, up 25.9% from the third quarter of 2004. In the Northeast, the median resale home price during the third quarter was $249,300, up 13.2% from a year earlier. The strongest increase in the region was in the Glenn Falls, N.Y., area, at $160,000, up 25.4% from the third quarter of 2004, followed by Kingston, N.Y., with a median price of $259,300, up 19.8%, and the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, at $230,600, up 19.0%. In the Midwest, the third-quarter median existing-home price of $173,300 rose 13.1% from the same period in 2004. The strongest increase in the Midwest was in the Waterloo-Cedar Falls area of Iowa, where the median price of $111,000 was 14.8% higher than the third quarter of 2004. Next was Bloomington-Normal, Ill., at $170,900, up 14.5%, and Rockford, Ill., at $120,400, up 13.7% in the last year. In the South, the typical existing home price was $183,500 in the third quarter, up 7.7% from a year earlier. After the Orlando and Cape Coral-Fort Meyers areas of Florida, the strongest increase in the South was in the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla., area, at $208,200, up 33.8% from the third quarter of 2004. Next was Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla., where the third quarter median price of $212,800 was 33.6% higher than a year ago, and Ocala, Fla., at $151,500, up 31.9%. Florida´s Home Resales Show Median Price, Sales Gains for Third Quarter 2005 RISMEDIA, Nov. 17 - Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose during third quarter 2005 along with the statewide median price: a total of 64,978 homes changed hands during the three-month period for a 7% increase over the 60,462 homes sold in third quarter 2004, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). The statewide median sales price for third quarter 2005 rose 31% to $248,600; a year ago, it was $189,900. For third quarter 2000, the statewide median sales price of existing single-family homes was $119,700, which translates as an increase of about 107.6% over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half of the units sold for more and half sold for less. Interest rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.76% for the three-month period, even lower than the 5.89% reported during the same quarter in 2004. FAR´s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written. Among the state´s larger markets, the Jacksonville metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported a strong boost in sales volume and median price for the quarter. A total of 4,999 existing homes sold in the Jacksonville market compared to 4,332 homes last year for a 15% gain. Over the same period, the market´s median sales price rose 18% to $193,800; it was $164,500 a year ago. "The Super Bowl threw some light on the Jacksonville area, making more people aware of what the First Coast area has to offer," says Linda Sherrer, president of the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors and president/CEO of Prudential Network Realty in Jacksonville. "We have a trained work force, a high rate of employment and a business-friendly climate that encourages developers to come here, bringing business, growth and more demand for housing." Other larger MSAs reporting higher resales activity for third quarter 2005 include: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, where 13,973 homes sold for a 12% gain; and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, where 3,802 homes changed hands for a 5% increase. The median sales price in those markets also rose: in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, 29% to $216,100; and in West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, 24% to $399,900. As for smaller Florida markets, the Ocala MSA had a total of 1,556 homes sold during the quarter compared to 1,512 a year ago for a 3% increase. The median sales price rose 32% to $151,600; a year ago, it was $115,000. Mary Modrovsky, president of the Ocala/Marion County Association of Realtors and broker with Fred Tyrrell Realty Inc. in Ocala, says that homebuyers are attracted to the area´s natural resources and wonderful quality of life. "We´re a unique community," she says. "We have open spaces with our lovely horse farms, our rolling hills, our clear, sparkling waters in Silver Springs. We have boating, fishing, a lot of lakes and rivers, hunting, hiking and camping in the National Forest. We have friendly people, quality retirement areas, new single-family developments, plus historic areas and new schools. We´re in an ideal location between the coasts -- we´re able to access either of the areas´ beaches within an hour and a half to two hours of travel." Several other smaller MSAs reported strong home sales for the third quarter, including: Gainesville, where 1,030 homes sold for a 13% gain; and Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, where 2,243 homes changed hands for a 12% increase. The median sales price in those markets also rose: in Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, 35% to $237,800; and in Gainesville, 11% to $185,700. Most Metro Areas See Historically High Home-Price Gains RISMEDIA, August 17,2005 In the South, the typical existing home price was $179,400 in the second quarter, up 5.7 percent in contrast a year earlier. After the Cape Coral-Fort Meyers and Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville areas of Florida, the strongest increase in the South was in the Orlando area, at $232,200, up 36.5 percent from the second quarter of 2004. Next was the Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice area of Florida, where the second quarter median price of $367,800 was 34.3 percent higher than a year ago, and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami Beach, at $371,600, up 31.7 percent. Florida, California and Texas to Dominate Future Population Growth, Census Bureau ReportsRISMEDIA, April 22 2005  Three states - Florida, California and Texas - would account for nearly one-half (46 percent) of total U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2030, according to Census Bureau state population projections. Consequently, Florida, now the fourth most populous state, would edge past New York into third place in total population by 2011; California and Texas would continue to rank first and second, respectively, in 2030. These three states would each gain more than 12 million people between 2000 and 2030. Arizona, projected to add 5.6 million people, and North Carolina, with 4.2 million, would round out the top five numerical gainers. As a result, Arizona and North Carolina would move into the top 10 in total population by 2030 - Arizona rising from 20th place in 2000 to 10th place in 2030 and North Carolina from 11th place to seventh place. Michigan and New Jersey are projected to drop out of the top 10. The projections indicate that the top five fastest-growing states between 2000 and 2030 would be Nevada (114 percent), Arizona (109 percent), Florida (80 percent), Texas (60 percent) and Utah (56 percent). Most (88 percent) of the nation´s population growth between 2000 and 2030 would occur in the South and West, which would be home to the 10 fastest-growing states over the period. The share of the population living in the South and West would increase from 58 percent in 2000 to 65 percent in 2030, while the share in the Northeast and Midwest would decline from 42 percent to 35 percent. In 2000, each of the nation´s 50 states had more people under 18 than 65 and older. In fact, in about half of the states, the ratio was more than two to one. In 2030, 10 states are projected to have more people 65 and older than under 18: Florida, Delaware, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. In six states, more than one in every four residents would be age 65 and older in 2030: Florida, Wyoming, Maine, New Mexico, Montana and North Dakota. As the oldest baby boomers become senior citizens in 2011, the population 65 and older is projected to grow faster than the total population in every state. In fact, 26 states are projected to double their 65- and-older population between 2000 and 2030. RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: editorial@rismedia.com

NAR Economist Puts His Money Where His Predictions Are: Florida St. Petersburg Times, Fla. RISMEDIA, March 28 2005 (KRT) It's one thing when the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors preaches that housing prices will escalate at least five more years despite percolating fears of a bubble. It's another when that economist, David Lereah, backs up talk with action. Showing faith in the Tampa Bay, Fla., area housing market specifically, Lereah three months ago bought as an investment one of the condominiums at the converted Madison at SoHo complex in Tampa. "I'm really putting my money where my mouth is," Lereah said Friday during a visit to Tampa. "I'm doing what my book says to do." That book, which rolled off the presses last month, has the tongue-twister title: Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade -- And How to Profit From Them. Lereah (pronounced Le-RAY) was in town to talk to members of the 6,000-strong local Realtors chapter. His trip had a dual purpose: to promote his book and defend his views. Nationally, he has taken a hit as a contrarian amid growing predications of a housing bubble -- particularly in markets such as Las Vegas, where housing prices shot up 46 percent in a year. In several Florida markets, housing prices have nearly doubled over the past five years. Lereah scoffed that the Wall Street Journal first predicted a housing bubble 4 1/2 years ago. "If people had listened to them, they would not have earned $4-trillion of additional wealth over the last four years." Naysayers are ignoring that real estate always goes up under normal market conditions and is far less volatile than the stock market, he said. There may be local economic events that hurt isolated areas, but a rising population fuels the need for housing. His forecast: a 4 percent drop nationally in home sales this year, the second-hottest year on record, as home prices rise 5 percent on average. He compared it to a balloon that leaks a bit but keeps rising. "We're not saying the boom is going to continue," Lereah said. "Doubleday put that title on the book to sell books. What we're really saying is (the U.S. will see) a healthy real estate expansion. We don't want to see double-digit price appreciation . . . We want to see the markets in better balance." He predicted prices in Florida will grow more slowly than recent double-digit jumps, but not retreat, as baby boomers continue to move here from more expensive housing markets. "I don't see any major yellow flags in your area at all," he added. Among looming problems he sees are the lean supply of homes nationwide, the aging housing stock and the lack of affordable homes for young and low-income families. Copyright © 2005, St. Petersburg Times, Fla. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News. RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: editorial@rismedia.com

Miami Residents Have New Ways to Check Homes for Code Violations. The Miami Herald RISMEDIA, Mar. 11 05 (KRT) ? Sometimes, Miami residents buy more than a house. They also acquire code violations. "It happens all the time," Commissioner Tomas Regalado said. "Someone buys a home, then finds out it has several code violations that the buyer has to answer for." City residents can more easily avoid such situations by using two programs being implemented by the department of Code Enforcement. The first, E-Code Online Access, in place since mid-February, allows residents to see a list of unresolved code violations on a property by entering its address or folio number on the city website. "Anyone interested in a property can see if it has problems like illegal additions or rental units," said Mariano Loret De Mola, Miami's director of code enforcement. With the second program, which begins Monday, people can call one of the city's three code enforcement offices or local NET office and receive a case number when they file a violation complaint. De Mola said that under the new system, nicknamed "311," a complaint is immediately assigned to one of the city's 40 code inspectors, who must investigate within six days. After that, the resident can get the results of that inspection by calling and referring to the complaint number, or through e-mail. "This user-friendly system will improve communication between our office and the public, making it easier for them to hold us accountable if something goes wrong," De Mola said. The system also helps save time and resources by creating a database accessible to all city offices. This will help eliminate the pursuit of a single complaint by more than one inspector, De Mola said. Irain J. Gonzalez, the department's chief of operations, said that the system guides the clerks taking residents' complaints, so the information in the database is as accurate as possible. Eventually, the city's program will merge with one already in place for Miami-Dade County. When that happens, residents will be able to file a complaint by dialing 311. The city does not yet have a projected start date for the merger. Will Johnson, president of Coconut Grove Village West Homeowners and Tenants Association, hopes the program will help reduce persistent violations. But he wishes code enforcement officers were based in NET offices -- like they used to be, instead of being centralized. "It's a good idea," said Grace Solares, president of Miami Roads Neighborhood Civic Association. "De Mola's office is already very responsive, but if there's a way to speed up the process, great." Copyright © 2005, The Miami Herald

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